Larry D. Lauer

For many, 2019 could be called… “The year of the search for new leadership.” But first, here are fifteen reasons to brace yourself for more division and chaos:

1. Mueller will complete his investigations. Trump might fire him, or refuse to release the report. But, the basic findings will become public via Congress and the courts. It will not be good news for the Trump family.
2. Trump chaos will continue to divide us. The border wall will remain controversial. Border security will now be a separate topic. Periodic demonstrations and shootings will continue.
3. American exceptionalism will be revisited. Historians will be interviewed more frequently about America’s founding humanitarian values.
4. Trump’s control needs will worsen. It’s the only style of management he knows. His only comfort is in the company of autocrats.
5. Discontent among Republicans will grow. Worry about a president-caused disaster will convince more and more Republicans to separate themselves from the administration.
6. Economic ignorance will be more apparent. Ongoing trade wars, political chaos, and international instability, will continue to produce up and down stock market swings.
7. Actual consequences of recent tax-cuts will be better understood. Little difference in paychecks. Growing national debt. Little new job creation. The rich were the beneficiaries.
8. Partisanship will worsen. Battles across the aisles will continue. Few statesmen will emerge.
9. Affordable healthcare will continue as a major issue. A solution is too complicated for 2019.
10. The Kavanaugh debate won’t go away. His second hearing emotional outbursts and partisan attacks will be referenced repeatedly whenever sexual harassment charges are in the headlines.
11. Business deregulation and selling-off pubic lands will continue. All this in spite of the fact that extreme rulings in these areas endanger both the environment and public health.
12. Facebook, Google, etc. will experience mild regulation. This will be their slap on the wrist for not paying attention to growing privacy issues.
13. The Obama’s will resurface. The success of Michelle’s new book, and Barack’s need to push back on Trump, will bring each of them back in the spotlight.
14. Fake news will be a permanent reality. Social media used as a weapon, unintended consequences of news competition, biased sources, and overall information clutter, will continue to confuse the public.
15. Starting 2019… the need for changes in political leadership is already widely recognized. But can Democrats sort out their various factions and many candidates to bring together a united vision? And will Republicans be able to regain and articulate a winnable conservative identity? Or, will it be necessary to find a political outsider who has the ability to bring the nation together around a set of traditional values and ideas?

Read Full Post »

Was the funeral service for Bush 41 in Washington the relic of a time gone by, or was it a reminder of the complexities and necessities of true public service leadership?

In other words, will our current president still think he was elected to change all of this by any means possible? Or, did seating him next to the other four living presidents make a statement that could lead to constructive change?

We now live in a politically polarized and divided nation. Even as this evolved, Bush 41 clearly preferred bipartisan problem-solving. Newt Gingrich was railroading Republicans into a totally partisan, hard-line conservative, combative, party. His aggression eventually morphed into Tea Party extremism, which laid the foundation for Trump’s victory. But even in a polarized environment, Bush was able to pass clean air, disability, civil rights, and other domestic legislation. Gingrich’s idea was to focus mostly on defeating the democrats. Bush’s was to find constructive ways to get things done.

Bush’s view of “America first” meant putting world peace first too. He combined quiet persistence with skillful diplomacy to negotiate the end of the cold war and the reunification of Germany. Both easily could have backfired into chaos. Pulling it off was a huge achievement. But he never bragged about it. He was not an “it’s about me” leader. He gave credit to others. For him, it was the American people who won the cold war.

Bush wanted everyone to think public service. He coined the phrase “1000 points of light,” setting the stage for an organization of volunteers serving others. Bush 43 later tried to float the idea of “compassionate conservatism” in his campaign. It didn’t stick. But it did stick as a theme for the entire Bush family.

I have been teaching a class about media and social change, and this week we discussed institutional leadership. I asked for thoughts about lessons they learned from Bush. They all agreed: Lead with a good measure of humility. Recruit a staff of highly experienced experts. Listen actively, and do things to make sure they enjoy working together.

It’s interesting that the deaths of John McCain and Bush 41, both Republicans, came so close together. Both showed courage in war. Both were competitive campaigners. Both preferred bipartisanship to gridlock. Both were remembered as compassionate. And both were contrasts to the Trump administration.

Morning Joe co-host Joe Scarborough noted that, unlike others, Bush 41 felt no need to write a book about his presidency. He was simply content to have historians judge his value. My bet is that Bush will do well with historians… and will also become our “back to the future,” road map for electing only experienced, informed, decent, truthful, and public service-minded politicians.

Read Full Post »